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SAPIENT

Independent geopolitical intelligence. Strategic analysis of power, technology, and competition.
Editorial collage depicting Trump against a map of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian oil infrastructure, illustrating how repeated intelligence warnings about Hormuz closure were dismissed.

The Trap Everyone Saw Coming: Except Trump

Washington didn't stumble into the Hormuz crisis. It was forced there by a president who refused to listen — and made sure nobody around him could make him. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz was not a surprise to anyone who had been paying attention. War game planners
SAPIENT 14 May 2026
Xi Jinping depicted in editorial collage against the Taiwan flag and map of Taiwan, illustrating China's strategic ambitions over the island.

The Invasion That Doesn't Need to Happen

Western analysts are asking the wrong question. China doesn't need to invade Taiwan. The absorption is already underway.
SAPIENT 12 May 2026

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